The NFU was amongst the Copa-Cogeca members exchanging views on the outlook for agriculture at a recent event in Brussels. Input suppliers, credit institutions and academics joined European farming organisations at the high-level workshop. Attendees heard OECD-FAO give a relatively buoyant forecast for commodities, with price levels set to remain above the averages of the last decade. Income, population and biofuels growth were all key factors in the forecast. Meat, dairy products, vegetable oils and sugar should experience the highest increases in demand, according to OECD-FAO. Latin America and Eastern Europe are set to be the fastest growing production regions, whilst developing countries driving the global demand and trade gains. USDA representatives echoed the strong demand for foodstuffs, pointing to the emergence of a global “middle class” and the recovery from the worst recession in decades as positive factors.
However, a higher cost structure is also likely and there will be challenges for farmers globally in adjusting to higher production costs. Energy prices in particular are set to be higher, and this is expected to have a big impact on agriculture given the use of energy in planting, harvesting, transportation and processing. Amidst all this, the traditional uncertainties of weather and policy, both trade and domestic, are set to feature. Attendees heard that a variety of tools are likely to be used to meet future demand by producers globally, with new technologies such as biotechnology, conservation tillage, drip irrigation, and multiple cropping practices all highlighted.
Whilst all farmers share some global drivers and have some common challenges, the workshop also flagged some of the differing issues facing farmers across the EU. Almost inevitably, differing weather patterns were prominent in the discussion but support for R&D, supply chain relationships and member state’s views on CAP reform were other topics where a divergence was apparent.
With international organisations sketching out the global picture, we want to know what you think the future holds for farming in the UK. The NFU confidence survey is now online
http://www.nfuonline.com/Our-work/Economics-and-International/News/Confidence-survey/
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