A new government report on climate change will help improve our understanding of how agriculture can be part of the solution to major public problems, the NFU said today.
The first Climate Change Risk Assessment allows government to compare a wide range of projections based on their financial, social and environmental impact.
It looks at both risks and opportunities, warning that flooding, heatwaves and water shortages could become more likely - but that benefits might include new shipping lanes, fewer cold-related deaths and higher crop yields.
There are eleven sector-specific reports, including one on agriculture.
Overall they provide ‘compelling evidence of the need to increase our resilience’, the authors say.
Lord John Krebs, chairman of the Committee on Climate Change’s adaptation sub-group, said: “Without an effective plan to prepare for climate change the country may sleepwalk into disaster. This report represents an important first step in the process and demonstrates why the UK needs to take action now.”
NFU adviser Dr Ceris Jones said: “Today’s report will help us improve our understanding of some of the risks and opportunities ahead so that we can better respond to what the climate might throw at us. Increasing food production, and playing an important role in the low carbon economy while delivering other environmental benefits are our goals.”
Set against a backdrop of the driest 12-month period on record for many areas of Britain, the findings highlight the importance of water to agricultural production.
“Continued access to abstracted water at a minimised environmental impact will be vital for boosting future food production,” noted NFU water policy adviser Jenny Bashford.
The CCRA evidence will be used to develop a National Adaptation Programme. Defra has called upon the public to give their views on what the priorities should be. Click here to have your say.
Among the findings…
- The CCRA says agricultural systems are vulnerable to changes in climate and are among the first to feel the effects.
- In the short term warmer temperatures and CO2 fertilisation may present some opportunities to improve yields and introduce new crops, such as soya, sunflowers, peaches, apricots and grapes. Sugar beet yields could increase by 20-70% and wheat by 40-140% by the 2050s due to longer growing seasons. However, without action those benefits are highly likely to be limited by low water availability, which is already being experienced in drier parts of the UK.
- The CCRA projects that, without action to improve water resources, there could be major supply shortages by the 2050s in parts of the North, South and East of England with the greatest challenge in the Thames River basin. However, changes in other factors like CAP reform are likely to have much greater influence than average climate conditions in the immediate future.
- The number of days in an average year when temperatures rise above 26 degrees C is projected to rise from 18 days to between 27-121 days in London by the 2080s. This could mean greater demand for energy to cool buildings and more heat-related illnesses. Pests which thrive in warmer conditions may also pose an increasing threat. Increases in drought and some pest and diseases could reduce timber yields and quality.
- Hotter summers present significant health risks. The CCRA projects that without measures to reduce the risk, there could be between 580-5,900 additional premature deaths per year by the 2050s.
- Opening of Arctic shipping routes. The melting of Arctic sea ice could lead to the opening up of new container shipping routes and improved trade links with Asia and the Pacific. Milder winters may result in a major reduction in cold-related deaths and illnesses.
- Andrew Bevan - 12/02/2012
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