The Food and Agriculture Organisation has released a first forecast for world wheat production in 2011 predicting a 3.4% increase on 2010.
The March edition of its Crop Prospects and Food Situation predicts a total of 676 million tonnes – up on last year but still below the bumper harvests in 2008 and 2009.
Wheat plantings in many countries have increased or are expected to increase in response to strong prices, while yield recoveries are forecast in areas affected by drought in 2010, the Russian Federation in particular, the report said.
Looking back to last year, the report notes that in the low-income food-deficit countries as a group, the 2010 cereal output rose by 5.6%, a development that will result in reduced cereal imports in the 2010/11 marketing years.
However, that will not necessarily mean much relief for these countries as their overall cereal import bill is likely to increase by 20% because of higher international prices.
Early FAO cereals forecasts
Europe – planting up and conditions satisfactory so far
In the EU, the overall wheat planted area is expected to be up by about 2%, and, with generally satisfactory conditions so far, the aggregate 2011 output is tentatively forecast to increase by 4%. In the Russian Federation, the winter wheat area was reduced because of dry conditions but the decline is expected to be more than offset by increased spring plantings. Coupled with an expected yield recovery after last year’s drought, a sizeable increase in the country’s 2011 wheat production over 2010 is forecast.
Ukraine also looks set to harvest more wheat this year, with relatively unchanged plantings but very favourable growing conditions reported, in contrast to last year.
North America – decline in 2011?
The early forecast for wheat production in the United States points to a decline in 2011. Although winter plantings increased significantly, adverse dry conditions in parts could increase the level of abandonment and the spring wheat area is forecast to decline under strong competition from other crops.
In Canada, the bulk of the wheat is spring sown and significantly larger plantings are expected in response to this year’s prices, especially in view of last year’s relatively low area.
Africa - a mixed picture
Prospects for the 2011 May-June harvests of winter wheat and coarse grains in North Africa are generally favourable, except in Tunisia where dry conditions in January dampened hopes for a robust wheat production recovery.
The current situation in North Africa has resulted in the displacement of large numbers of people and disruption to the flow of goods and services in this heavily cereal-import dependent region.
In Southern Africa, the outlook for the main 2011 maize crop is favourable and relatively low prices have helped stabilize food security. A record crop of maize is forecast in Malawi and Zambia. However, in South Africa, the largest producer in the sub-region, a sharp drop in production is forecast due to high stocks and low prices for maize at planting time.
In Eastern Africa, despite bumper harvests in 2010 and generally low prices, food insecurity has increased in the drought-stricken pastoral areas. In Western Africa, post-election violence in Cote d'Ivoire continued to damage general economic conditions in the sub-region and, in particular, trade.
Asia and South America
In Asia, good 2011 wheat harvests are forecast in India and Pakistan. In China, the drought situation in the North Plain has eased but the outlook for the wheat crop still remains uncertain.
In the Asia CIS sub-region, where Kazakhstan is the major producer, the bulk of the crop is yet to be sown but in view of current strong prices plantings are expected to be in line with the relatively high level of the past two years.
In South America, where the season is well advanced, prospects for the 2011 maize crop are unfavourable in Argentina and Uruguay due to persistent dry weather linked to the La Niña weather event. In Brazil the outlook is positive after good rainfall since planting.
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