Was the last 18 months in livestock a story of unprecedented market instability on a scale that's unlikely to return - or did it represent the 'new norm' for the sector?
A panel including Dunbia's Padraig Browne and Marks and Spencer's head of agriculture, Steve McLean, gave their thoughts in a session which also included a frank explanation of the NFU's position on 'whole lifetime' assurance for beef.
Sector board chairman Charles Sercombe said: "As a lifelong livestock farmer I haven’t been surprised by the strong views and passions that this consultation has raised. The livestock board has supported whole lifetime assurance as long as it is practical at a farm level and driven by genuine market demand. I challenged all our regional boards to go back and formulate opinions. They will come back on 24 March and we will formulate our response.
“This is not a done deal – AFS are listening and we must make farmers’ voices heard.
"I’d urge members to reply to the consultation individually and to feed into our response, because nobody solves complicated problems like a farmer. NFU members on both sides have raised opinions.
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The sector in short - Charles Sercombe’s key NFU livestock successes of the past 12 months:
- The Voluntary Beef Processor Code – “It’s not perfect, but it’s the first step on a long journey towards greater transparency and openness in the deadweight supply chain.”
- Curbing the “worst excesses” of CAP reform implementation, particularly on the uplands.
- Keeping grazing AFUs
- A new industry proposal on sheep carcase splitting which will rid lamb producers of a costly and cumbersome implementation of EU regulations - “A step towards a win-win for the whole industry which will save millions throughout the supply chain”.
- A change in the cross compliance rules for late bTB tests which will see some farmers who had been fined for overdue tests get their money back. “500 farmers will get money back.”
"Like any livestock farmer I want UK producers to have a larger share of the UK market."
On the volatility question, Mr Sercombe added: “I accept that volatility is the new norm, but I can’t accept that we don’t do anything about it. We have to use the risk management tools we have at our disposal, whether that’s through contracts, producer organisations, more integrated supply chains or forwards trading.
“At the same time we cannot rely upon the market to solve our problems. We must sometimes challenge ourselves to drive efficiencies. There is volatility in the livestock sector, but there are also opportunities. I think these are exciting times."
For Dunbia group procurement director, Padraig Browne, volatility could be risk managed by using the whole of the animal, with specific markets for each quarter, and by widening the markets themselves.
“Fifth quarter sales are as important to us as fine quality steak. We have to maximise carcase sales to pay a sustainable price to our farmers,” he said.
“There are substantial new markets for red meat in Asia, Africa and the US. The potential of China is huge and the UK must be in a position to quickly follow suit when Ireland gains market access to the US. In both beef and lamb long term prospects for gradual price increases are good, but gradual is the key word. I don’t think we’re going to reach the heights of two years ago or see the rapid readjustments.”
Marks and Spencer’s Steve McQueen promoted his company’s focus on shorter supply chains and communications with direct suppliers as a risk management tool.
He said: “Is volatility here to stay? I’m tempted to answer with a flat ‘yes’ but I’d qualify that by observing that if we do as we’ve always done we get what we’ve always had.
”We need to see shorter supply chains in general, and shorter supply chains are about getting to know producers and understanding the risks they face early.”
How do I watch live?
If you’ve got a computer and an internet connection, you can watch most of the sessions in the main hall by clicking on the player in this page.