Tom Rigby, chairman of the NFU’s Organic Forum, ponders this question in his latest posting:
It’s difficult to predict what the future brings, but at that time concerns of a collapse of the CAP, oil becoming so scarce it would be too expensive to put in tractors or farmland prices falling below £100/acre thankfully never came to fruition. There are only two people who can feel justifiably proud of their contribution to the discussion that day.
One is Patrick Holden who predicted a rise in organic farming, maybe not quite the '20% by 2000' he had hoped for but now at well over 1 million acres, it is far bigger than a county the size of Lancashire and an area three times the area of Greater London.
However top marks for astuteness must go to Nick Saphir (pictured above) who at that time was founding chairman of Food From Britain, a Ministry body promoting food exports. He foretold how the growing power of supermarkets (or 'hypermarkets' as they were called back then) would substantially impact on farm gate prices to a far greater extent than most farmers realised.
In 2003 Nick became chairman of the Organic Milk Suppliers Cooperative (OMSCo) and transformed it into what it is today. With a turnover in excess of £100m/year, OMSCo has successfully entered markets such as America, Australia, China and Europe. Nick is a guest speaker at the Organic session of NFU Conference and I look forward to asking him "what will UK farming be like in 15 years time?"
As a country we may have come to appreciate the true value of the EU, but with uncertainty of what trade looks like with the world after we leave Europe, I believe that organic farmers are well placed to prosper.
Organic farming in the EU certainly has resonated well with European consumers. Organic sales in France are double that of the UK and Germany’s market is three times as big; nether show any signs of slowing. In Denmark the organic market grew by 18% in last year, while the UK grew by 5.6%.
Demand is clearly growing for organic produce, yet production is faltering. My concern is that this will be met with imports and UK producers will not benefit as a result. It’s pleasing to see therefore that the Organic Trade Board have joined up with Organic Denmark and won a grant of €10.4m to promote further growth for the organic sector; £6m of which will be spent in the UK.
Food standards, such as the Organic Regulation and the Red Tractor logo ultimately need to meet consumer expectation. Organic regulations currently sit under EU legislation, so once we leave the EU in two years’ time, we must make sure these remain under law.
I will be meeting with farming Minister George Eustice, along with other representatives from the organic sector to Government support in this, as well as other areas such as marketing and production initiatives.
We, at the Organic Forum, will continue to ensure sensible, pragmatic regulation allows for good market access for members who wish to farm organically.
:: While it is customary to drink too much at NFU's annual dinner and to be feeling a bit delicate next morning I look forward to meeting many member bright and early on Wednesday 22 February at 8am to discuss our hopes and plans for the future.