‘Good’ prospects describe a situation where water levels are average, or above average, and supplies are expected to be safe. There is a possibility of minor local controls on abstraction from surface water in late summer if the weather is exceptionally hot and dry.
Cumulative rainfall totals for the past six months to January 2021 are higher than average, reflecting the wet winter experienced up to the end of January. February rainfall is variable across the country.
River flows were normal or higher in January. At the end of January, groundwater levels were classed as normal or higher for the time of year across England, with the expectation for more recharge of aquifers through to the spring, given the ongoing condition of saturated soils.
The latest three-month Met Office forecast up to May indicates an increased risk of a dry March. The chance of near-average temperatures is close to normal, although the chances of colder weather in March is greater than the last few years.
Over the three months as a whole to the end of May there is a slight increase in the likelihood of dry conditions (and more chance of a warm spring), although average rainfall is still the more expected scenario over this whole period.
Paul Hammett, NFU’s water specialist, said:
“Widespread cases of flooded fields and saturated soils mean that farmers are having to cope with significant wet weather challenges at the start of the farming year.
"We welcome early indications of good water availability for the 2021 irrigation season from both groundwater and surface water sources. However, weather patterns remain unpredictable and exceptionally hot and dry weather last spring resulted in rapid changes in water availability.
"With last year’s experience in mind, farmers will undoubtedly continue to closely monitor weather and water availability as the year unfolds.”
You can find detailed analysis of the situation in all of England’s key irrigated crop-growing catchment in the Environment Agency’s document, ‘Irrigation prospects for irrigation – forecast for 2021’.