The event, which attracts over a thousand economists, data analysers, decision makers and industry experts, focuses on the state of US Agriculture and its impact on global commodity markets.
Export Performance
2014 was a record year for US exports. The 2015 outlook is expected to be marginally down on the back of a stronger dollar and lower prices for a number of key commodities, but export performance is still forecasted to be the second highest on record.
US farmers are set to export $141.5 billion (£92 billion) worth of agricultural products around the globe, of which $23.6 billion (£15.3 billion) will head to China alone. The EU market is forecast to account for $12.1 billion of the total, down $400 million on 2014 as demand, especially for US horticultural products, is expected to weaken due to the stronger dollar.
Table 1. US Agricultural exports 2015 (forecast) : Value
Grains and feeds | $29.9 billion |
Oilseeds and products | $30.9 billion |
Livestock, poultry and dairy | $31.8 billion |
Horticultural products | $36.0 billion |
Tobacco, cotton, seeds, sugar | $13.0 billion |
Farm Incomes
Even though exports are buoyant, Farm incomes are expected to fall in 2015. USDA is forecasting a fall of 34% in net farm incomes compared to 2014, down to $73.6 billion.
This is primarily driven by lower crop receipts (-$15.6 billion), and livestock prices (-$10.1 billion), albeit Government payments are expected to increase by 15% (crop revenue payments) and input costs such as feed, fuels and rents are also expected to be lower in 2015.
Grains and oilseeds Outlook
The USDA is forecasting lower prospects for prices and producer returns in the arable sector for 2015. With lower returns, plantings of wheat, corn, soya-beans and rice are all projected to decline. Wheat production is expected to rise slightly on increased yields. This along with higher carry-over stocks is expected to weigh on price. Arable farmers with high cash rents are particularly vulnerable.
Dairy Outlook
US dairy prices were record high in 2014. Producers responded by increasing herds, adding 99,300 cows between 1st Jan 2014 and 1st Jan 2015. Average milk yield per cow also increased, leading to a 2.4% increase in milk production. However the US is not immune to the changes in trade seen on the global dairy markets. In the second half of 2014, exports began to slow and prices fell. Milk production in 2015 is forecast to increase by 2.7% compared to last year.
Livestock and poultry
Total livestock and poultry production declined 1.2% in 2014, the first yearly decline since 2009, as lower beef, pork and turkey production more than offset higher broiler production. Although annual average prices for cattle, hogs, broilers, turkeys and eggs reached record levels in 2014.
In 2015, total livestock production and poultry is set to expand by 3.2%. if realised this would be the largest year on year percentage increase since 2002. The beef herd is recovering slowly from the drought, but the lengthy production cycle and retention of heifers for herd expansion will constrain beef output in 2015.
The Outlook?
Farmers in the US are facing many of the same issues that farmers here in the UK are currently facing. Lower farm incomes, lower farm-gate prices, lower input costs, and the challenges created by having a strengthening currency. However it was clear that the US farmers are looking to the future with growing confidence to increase their global market share of the agricultural commodity market.