UK retailers fight for market share and consumer spend as article 50 looms

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Aldi continues to increase its lead above Co-Op as the fifth biggest UK retailer

Kantar Worldpanel today released the most recent market share results of the UK’s top retailers. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, explains “Like for like inflation has doubled since last month to stand at 1.4% during the past 12 weeks.  However, when placed in their long term context, these price increases are still fairly minimal”.

Combined sales of the top 4 supermarkets, namely Tesco, Asda, Morrisons and Sainsburys, has seen an increase of 0.5% year on year.  Despite price inflation, the market is still in growth with the big 4 supermarkets still dominating just over 70%.  Kantar’s data also suggests that 99% of the population will have shopped in at least one of the big 4 in the last quarter.

The market is still in growth:

  • Morrisons sales increased by 2.6% (fastest growth in 5 years), whilst holding its market share at 10.6%
  • Tesco sales increased for the 6th period in a row, however market share has decreased by 0.5%
  • Asda, the only retailer to see a fall in sales and a market share loss of 0.8%, although this is their best performance since November 2014.
  • Sainsburys sales increased by 0.3% since March 2016, holding 16.5% of the market.
  • Lidl has outperformed them all, as fastest growing supermarket with sales up 13%
  • Aldi also follows suit with sales increasing 12.9%, reaching 6.3% of the market for the first time – now larger than the Co-Op
  • Co-Op and Waitrose both increased sales by 1.7% and 2.9% respectively
  • Iceland saw an increase of sales of 8.8%

As food prices begin to rise in the face of article 50 being triggered, staples such as butter, tea and fish all had more than a 5% price rise over the past 12 weeks.

We are also seeing major changes to consumer shopping habits when compared to two years previous. In 2015, the proportion of groceries sold on promotion peaked at 40%, now at 34.3% promotion levels are the lowest since October 2009.  This mirrors the strategy of the discount supermarkets, to move away from promotional offerings, and more to EDLP (Every Day Low Prices).  It has been shown that consumers prefer this model of EDLP, as stable prices helps with consumer shopping budgets.

Despite the move away from promotional offers, meal deals remain particularly popular, with an uplift in spent of £9 million during the same period last year. Special occasions like Valentine’s Day saw 2 million M&S shoppers buy the offer of dinner for two for £10.  It’s clear the big 4 are still the dominating force, but with the discounters still in rapid growth there remains to be a price war within the retail sector.  The NFU continue to ensure that agricultural supply chains are sustainable and resilient, for the long term and farmers and growers are not funding

For more information visit https://www.kantarworldpanel.com/en/Press-Releases/UK-grocery-market-grows-as-price-rises-continue-