The main findings of the meeting were that:
- EU milk collections were up 5.6% in the first 4 months of 2016. In April milk deliveries were 1.6% higher with the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Poland reporting the greatest volume increases.
- Average farm gate milk prices were 27.3 c/kg in April - a 19% decrease compared to a 5-year average. Most analysts expected a further fall in May with no improvement expected in milk prices before September.
- Applications for PSA have reached 102,000tonnes of butter and 28,200 tonnes of SMP in 2016 so far, with 296,500 tonnes of SMP having been bought-in to intervention in 2016
- Dairy product prices have improved since May, notably for butter and WMP, although they are still lower than at the beginning of the year (except for whey powder). SMP prices continue to oscillate around intervention level although with a slightly upward trend. The exchange rate evolution has partially offset this development when showing EU prices in US$. Despite this effect, world quotations of dairy products have generally increased in the main exporting regions.
- The Commission are forecasting (taking into account cow culls, weather patterns and recent milk production trends) a modest 1.4% increase in milk deliveries this year.
- EU private stock levels remain healthy as public intervention has absorbed surplus production. Offers to public intervention are expected to decline in the following weeks, in line with market recovery.
- Globally milk production is up 3% in the first 4 months of 2016, with the FAO outlook for the whole year forecasting only 1.6% annual growth. The USDA forecast for 2016 is up 1.9% and both NZ and Australia will end their seasons with negative volumes and further decreases are expected for next campaign (ranging from -2% to -5%).
- EU exports have been strong in April, with China as the main market both in volume and value. Only SMP exports have decreased, due to a global slowdown for this product and the effect of public intervention.
- Decreasing milk consumption was reported for in France, Spain, Portugal and the UK. Demand for organic products is high in France with double digit growth for many dairy products.