With the harvest now at 2.5 billion tonnes the forecast for the full-year would be 3.7mt below 2013’s record output.
World production of coarse grains is expected to reach 1.3bt, down 5mt from the previous forecast and 0.6% (or 7.4mt) below last year’s level.
The reduction in forecast is as a result of a poorer outlook of China’s maize production, despite this the global maize harvest is expected to reach record levels of 1.01bt as a result of bumper harvests in Europe and the US.
The forecast for global wheat production has been raised by 4mt to around 722.6mt, as output from the EU and Ukraine is on track to be higher than previously expected. This is 3.6mt lower than the previous forecast but still 3.8mt above last year’s peak.
With respect to rice, the forecast for global production remains unchanged at 496.3mt in milled rice equivalent.
The FAO's November brief also observed that global cereal utilsation for direct human consumption is set to expand by 0.9% to 2.450bt - in line with the global population, leaving per capita consumption stable - while utilisation for livestock feed is expected to rise by 2.6%. This is largely driven by this season’s ample supplies and lower prices.