Forecast EU wheat production in 2015/16 will be 1.2 million tonnes lower than previously expected.
Total EU wheat production (soft/common plus durum) in the forthcoming marketing year, which starts on July 1, is pegged at 148.8 million tonnes in the IGC’s latest report for June, down from 150mt in its May estimate and 5% lower than the record 156.2mt produced in 2014/15.
“While weather has been mostly favourable in Scandinavia and the Baltic States, hot and drier than usual conditions have reduced yield potential in Spain, parts of France, Germany and Poland,” the IGC said. “The total harvested area is forecast marginally lower year-on-year, at 26.6 million hectares, with a reduction for common wheat nearly offset by higher durum.”
It said it expected a return to average yields for the crop this year, which would tally with the latest yield forecasts from the European Commission. EU wheat harvesting is now underway in southern Europe, including parts of Spain, Greece and Italy.
EU cereal farmers’ body Coceral also lowered its forecasts for wheat production in the bloc this year today (June 26) to 148.218mt from 155.819mt in 2014/15.
The figure consists of 140.621mt of soft wheat (down from 148.279mt in 2014/15) and 7.597mt of durum (7.540mt).
Leading producer France is expected to see a year-on-year increase in soft wheat production to 38.286mt from 37.452mt, but second biggest producer Germany could see a significant drop to 24.885mt from 27.814mt.
Average EU soft wheat yields are expected by Coceral to fall to 6.68 tonnes per hectare from 7.1t/ha last year, while planted area is predicted to increase to 15.013 million hectares from 14.934m ha.
French yields are only expected to contract marginally to 7.44t/ha from 7.48t/ha but German yields are set to decline steeply to 7.55t/ha from 8.63t/ha. ADM Germany said in a note earlier this week that crop production there could struggle to even meet average levels due to dryness in recent weeks and rains are needed urgently.
The IGC still expects the EU to be the world’s leading wheat exporter in 2015/16, consolidating the position it achieved in 2014/15 when it overtook the US, but the forecasts for shipments this season has been lowered to 29.6mt – down 200,000t from May and 4.4mt below the level achieved in the current year.
Expected EU demand for wheat is cut by 1mt since May to 49.5mt, but is still close to this season and above the five-year average.
Despite a cut compared with last month, EU end stocks for 2015/16 are expected to expand and reach a six-year high of 14.8mt.
US carryover stocks are also expected to be the largest in five years at 22.4mt. Production there is expected to increase to 58.2mt from 55.1mt in the current season.