The headline is that unless we have the long-term average amount of rainfall we would expect this winter, or more, it is likely some parts of the country will emerge into 2026 in drought. That is with the current Met Office long-term forecast for the UK which shows a 30% likelihood of drier conditions from November to January.
The prospects for refilling reservoirs with winter water progressively worsens the drier conditions become, with parts of the Midlands, east and South East impacted particularly badly.
Below are the support measures the EA is proposing:
- Short-term options may be available to improve access to water outside of licence conditions provided that other abstractors and the environment remain protected (see the section on abstraction licencing flexibility below).
- The EA regulatory position statement (RPS300) that covers when abstractors can take water outside of abstraction licence conditions during a flood warning.
- Abstractors can consider trading water rights with other licence holders or sharing water to improve access to water supplies. See guidance on trading water abstraction rights which includes links to Help for Water Rights Trading Data and a water rights trading map.
- The EA recommends signing up to their online service. This will allow abstractors to submit abstraction returns and view their licence information. Some licence holders will also have access to water abstraction email alerts which will inform them when hands-off flow restrictions are in force or lifted.
- The EA has also produced a preparing for winter after a dry year blog.
For the latest information on rainfall see the Environment Agency monthly reports. The Farming Advisory Service also produces regular reports on irrigation prospects.
Status definitions
The report details refill prospects for reservoirs under 100%, 80% and 60% of (LTA (long-term average) rainfall this winter.
‘Good’ status means that water levels are average or above average and supplies are expected to be safe. There is always a possibility of minor local controls on abstraction from surface water in late summer if the weather is exceptionally hot and dry.
‘Moderate’ prospects mean that water levels are low and so some controls on surface water abstraction are possible by midsummer if the weather is hot and dry. Controls on abstraction from groundwater are possible in small, sensitive groundwater areas.
‘Poor’ relates to water levels being well below average. Soil moisture deficit is developing early and significant restrictions on abstraction from surface and groundwater are probable.
Read the report in full at: GOV.UK | Drought prospects for spring 2026.
