Farm incomes mask ‘huge volatility’ caused by the Middle East conflict

Environment and climate
Calculator in a field of wheat

Photograph: INSADCO GmbH / Alamy Stock Photo

New farm income figures from Defra included some welcome findings, the NFU said – but it added that these should be weighed against pressing investment needs and the “huge volatility” caused by the Middle East conflict, which followed the exercise.

The data from Defra put the total income from farming – the total profit from all UK farming businesses during the past calendar year – in the UK in 2025 at £8.4bn, a 20.5% increase on 2024 after a recording period that featured relatively stable input costs and higher beef and dairy commodity prices.

‘Huge volatility’ returned

“The latest figures are positive for some sectors such as livestock, poultry and dairy which performed well in 2025,” said NFU President Tom Bradshaw.

“Farming is a business like any other and it’s important to recognise huge investment is needed over the coming decade to meet environmental regulations, deliver the ever-growing animal welfare demands and build the resilience of the UK food system. This investment can only be made by profitable businesses that have long-term confidence.”

He added: “Fast forward six months and huge volatility has returned, and British agriculture is under immense economic strain, driven by the conflict in the Middle East. Farmers margins are under pressure and, for many, have been completely eroded by falling prices. The job of producing food is much harder now due to spiralling costs of fertiliser, fuel and energy.”

Our focus remains on working to build a profitable future for UK farming and to restore the confidence our industry so desperately needs to thrive and grow.

NFU President Tom Bradshaw

Mixed picture across the sectors

Overall livestock category output value in 2025 rose 10.2% to £22.2bn.

Dairy accounted for the largest share – £7bn – as strong UK farm milk prices from 2024 continued into 2025 and spurred an uptick in production, while the beef sector also saw strong prices, driven by sustained demand and a reduction in the UK cattle herd. It contributed £5.1bn of output value and recorded the biggest percentage rise on 2024, at 22.8%.

Poultry tracked modest gains, with meat output value up £19m to £3.37bn and eggs value rising £94m to £1.45bn.

Meanwhile, total crops output value fell 3.1% to £11.4bn, the lowest since 2020.

Amongst the larger reversals, barley value decreased by £201 million (16.8%), attributed to low prices, poor quality, and a smaller planted area. Sugar beet output value fell £80m (21.8%), as poor planting conditions and pest pressures compounded a 15.8% decrease in the annual price index, while the output value of potatoes dropped by £83m. Increases in area and production failed to overcome a 31.2% fall in the annual price index.

Building resilience ‘crucial’

“Unfortunately, there are sectors that have found it far more difficult and 2025 was another very difficult year for cereal farmers against a backdrop of continued uncertainty over the future of agri-environment schemes and extreme weather,” Tom added.

“Building farming’s resilience is crucial.

“That’s why we have published our Fertiliser Resilience Plan, which sets out a series of immediate actions needed from government and the wider industry to help deliver short-term resilience and affordability, and why the recent announcement on ELMs (Environmental Land Management schemes) and the clear funding gap that exists between ambition and delivery, was so disappointing.

“Our focus remains on working to build a profitable future for UK farming and to restore the confidence our industry so desperately needs to thrive and grow. The work of British farmers helps to feed 70 million people, drives economic growth and delivers for the environment. As we stand now, this is getting increasingly harder and the burden of risk is growing.”

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This page was first published on 16 July 2024. It was updated on 16 June 2026.


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